Livethai-mr-2026#measles#outbreak#public-health

จะมี measles outbreak (>= 50 confirmed) ในไทยใน Q3 2026?

Will Thailand confirm a measles outbreak with >= 50 cases in a single province during Q3 2026?

YES probability

28%NO 72%

Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if the Department of Disease Control (DDC) Thailand confirms >= 50 measles cases in any single province within Q3 2026 (Jul 1 - Sep 30), as published by 2026-10-15.

Sourcesddc.moph.go.thWHO Thailand country office

Curated sample market. Zero trades yet. The 28% number above is a reference probability, not a crowd-derived price. Order book below is illustrative depth shown to convey the future UX — turn waitlist intent into a real position when trading opens in Phase 1.

YES bids

mock depth

28¢$1,240
27¢$2,100
26¢$880
25¢$3,220

NO bids