Liveasf-th-90d#asf#biosecurity#vet
ASF จะถูกตรวจพบในจังหวัดใหม่ของไทย (ไม่เคยมี case ใน 12 เดือนก่อน) ภายใน 90 วัน?
Will the Thai DLD confirm an African Swine Fever outbreak in a province that has had zero ASF cases in the prior 12 months, within the next 90 days?
YES probability
55%NO 45%
Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if the Department of Livestock Development (DLD) publishes a confirmed ASF case on a commercial Thai pig farm between 2026-05-27 and 2026-08-25 in a province that had zero DLD-reported ASF cases for the 12 months immediately preceding 2026-05-27.
Sourcesdld.go.thWOAH official disease reports
Curated sample market. Zero trades yet. The 55% number above is a reference probability, not a crowd-derived price. Order book below is illustrative depth shown to convey the future UX — turn waitlist intent into a real position when trading opens in Phase 1.
YES bids
mock depth- 55¢$1,240
- 54¢$2,100
- 53¢$880
- 52¢$3,220
NO bids
mock depth- 45¢$1,840
- 44¢$760
- 43¢$2,540
- 42¢$1,120