Livebkk-flood-2026#bangkok#flood#climate

กรุงเทพจะมี major flood event ในฤดูฝน 2026?

Will Bangkok have a major flood event (BMA-declared >= 50 affected districts) during the 2026 monsoon season?

YES probability

24%NO 76%

Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) officially declares a flood event affecting >= 50 districts during the 2026 monsoon season (Jun 1 - Nov 30 2026).

Sourcesbangkok.go.thTMD (Thai Meteorological Department)

Curated sample market. Zero trades yet. The 24% number above is a reference probability, not a crowd-derived price. Order book below is illustrative depth shown to convey the future UX — turn waitlist intent into a real position when trading opens in Phase 1.

YES bids

mock depth

24¢$1,240
23¢$2,100
22¢$880
21¢$3,220

NO bids