Foresight
Liveanthropic-1m-context-default#anthropic#claude#context-window

Claude 1M context จะเปิดให้ใช้ได้ทุก Tier (รวม Tier 1 + Free) ก่อนสิ้นปี 2026?

Will Anthropic remove the Tier 4 usage gate on Claude's 1M-token context window (i.e., make it available to Tier 1 / free tier accounts) before 2026-12-31?

YES probability
41%NO 59%

Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if anthropic.com pricing or platform.claude.com docs state that Claude's 1M-token context window is available without a Tier 4 / cumulative-spend gate (Free or Tier 1 access counts) on any Sonnet- or Opus-class model before 2026-12-31.

Sourcesanthropic.com pricingplatform.claude.com docsAnthropic developer changelog
Curated sample market. Zero trades yet. The 41% number above is a reference probability, not a crowd-derived price. Order book below is illustrative depth shown to convey the future UX — turn waitlist intent into a real position when trading opens in Phase 1.

YES bids

mock depth
  • 41¢$1,240
  • 40¢$2,100
  • 39¢$880
  • 38¢$3,220

NO bids

mock depth
  • 59¢$1,840
  • 58¢$760
  • 57¢$2,540
  • 56¢$1,120

Cross-venue comparison