Liveanthropic-1m-context-default#anthropic#claude#context-window
Claude 1M context จะเปิดให้ใช้ได้ทุก Tier (รวม Tier 1 + Free) ก่อนสิ้นปี 2026?
Will Anthropic remove the Tier 4 usage gate on Claude's 1M-token context window (i.e., make it available to Tier 1 / free tier accounts) before 2026-12-31?
YES probability
41%NO 59%
Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if anthropic.com pricing or platform.claude.com docs state that Claude's 1M-token context window is available without a Tier 4 / cumulative-spend gate (Free or Tier 1 access counts) on any Sonnet- or Opus-class model before 2026-12-31.
Sourcesanthropic.com pricingplatform.claude.com docsAnthropic developer changelog
Curated sample market. Zero trades yet. The 41% number above is a reference probability, not a crowd-derived price. Order book below is illustrative depth shown to convey the future UX — turn waitlist intent into a real position when trading opens in Phase 1.
YES bids
mock depth- 41¢$1,240
- 40¢$2,100
- 39¢$880
- 38¢$3,220
NO bids
mock depth- 59¢$1,840
- 58¢$760
- 57¢$2,540
- 56¢$1,120